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Tools
Top Cut Calculator
Swiss tournament probability by win record
Total registered
Swiss rounds
Players advancing
Record Probabilities
64 players, 6 rounds, Top 8
| Record | Points | Chance of Record | Expected Players | Top Cut? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | 18 | 1.1% | ~1 | IN |
| 5-0-1 | 16 | 0.7% | ~0 | IN |
| 5-1 | 15 | 6.9% | ~4 | IN |
| 4-0-2 | 14 | 0.2% | ~0 | IN |
| 4-1-1 | 13 | 3.6% | ~2 | BUBBLE |
| 4-2 | 12 | 17.2% | ~11 | OUT |
| 3-1-2 | 11 | 0.8% | ~0 | OUT |
| 3-2-1 | 10 | 7.3% | ~5 | OUT |
| 3-3 | 9 | 23.0% | ~15 | OUT |
| 2-2-2 | 8 | 1.1% | ~1 | OUT |
| 2-3-1 | 7 | 7.3% | ~5 | OUT |
| 2-4 | 6 | 17.2% | ~11 | OUT |
| 1-3-2 | 5 | 0.8% | ~0 | OUT |
| 1-4-1 | 4 | 3.6% | ~2 | OUT |
| 1-5 | 3 | 6.9% | ~4 | OUT |
| 0-4-2 | 2 | 0.2% | ~0 | OUT |
| 0-5-1 | 1 | 0.7% | ~0 | OUT |
| 0-6 | 0 | 1.1% | ~1 | OUT |
Assumes a 50% win rate with a 5% draw rate. IN means all players with that record make top cut. BUBBLE means some but not all players with that record advance (tiebreakers decide). Actual results vary based on pairings, intentional draws, and tiebreaker systems.